I want to be optimistic but above all I am a pragmatist. I like to stay in touch with reality and right now from what I can see I and Ihave a pretty good view, tourism will return louder and stronger than ever. Wait, not this year not 2021.
That’s right, we are heading into the end of the first quarter of the year, I am writing this in mid March and the world has not really changed since mid 2020. There is no real change other than we have many different vaccines but no one has actually had it. What I mean is the vast majority of humanity as a whole have not had the vaccine and this will not change in another six months. It is very positive, having one vaccine is amazing, having many is even more amazing. The point I am trying to make is we all need to actually be administered the vaccine.
It is a monumental task to vaccinate 70% or an entire country and that is what is required to achieve herd immunity. Once you have been administered the vaccine or once we have achieved herd immunity we are pretty much safe and can go back to normal. To achieve this will take some time. It really will vary from country to country but even the most financially strong and organised countries will take many months to achieve this and it feels like the process has literally just starting in most countries.
The good news is Israel today announced most people have already had the first of two injections and could be the world’s first country to achieve herd immunity. Awesome someone has shown us it can be done. What about the rest of the world? It will as mentioned, take many months.
What does this mean for Bali? As you would expect the government here could not manage a picnic lunch, let alone mass vaccinations. They can be fully trusted to lie and boast that they are doing a fantastic job when in reality they are as usual making a complete mess of things. Since day one they have just under reported the pandemic and only had one interest, to make money. Same as always. Bali is an economic disaster. What will they say, ‘oh it’s not that bad.’
So reality is most people wont be vaccinated in Bali and in Indonesia for many months to come and countries where tourists are know to visit Bali won’t be back for many months to come. 2020 was a total disaster for tourism and it simply wont get better in 2021. Maybe, just maybe if we are very lucky there may be an increase in late December around Christmas but I would not count on it. Bali will be back when the whores are back on the beach. Right now they are no where to be seen and that means no more sensual massages for many months to come. We wanted to reopen in mid 2021 but I can’t see that happening. If you work in tourism in Bali time to get another job.